Neutrosophic soft sets forecasting model for multi-attribute time series

Traditional time series forecasting models mainly assume a clear and definite functional relationship between historical values and current/future values of a dataset. In this paper, we extended current model by generating multi-attribute forecasting rules based on consideration of combining multiple related variables. In this model, neutrosophic soft sets (NSSs) are employed to represent historical statues of several closely related attributes in stock market such as volumes, stock market index and daily amplitudes

Research on the evolution of innovation behavior of new generation entrepreneurs in different scenarios

Innovation of new generation entrepreneurs is crucial to the development of a country. Empirical research method can analyze the history and current situation, but it is difficult to reflect the dynamic process and evolution trend under different scenarios. In this paper, we adopt computational experiment method to model the decision-making process of new generation entrepreneurs. Multi-agent evolution model is constructed to simulate individual behavior of different types of new generation entrepreneurs under different scenarios. By the comparison of different results, it analyses the evolutionary rules of innovation behaviors and explores guidance policies to promote entrepreneurs’ innovation behavior and achieve better innovation performance. The experimental results show that although internal elements such as individual’s innovative spirit, innovative ability and cognition of social capital determine the innovation intention, the capital, technology and talent conditions are also very important for innovation implementation. New generation entrepreneurs with different risk preferences should objectively evaluate and treat innovation risks according to their own characteristics. This helps to reduce the negative impact of innovation risk on continuous innovation. Meanwhile, government should pay attention to establishing risk guarantee mechanism such as innovation insurance fund to promote the innovation of new generation entrepreneurs. First published online 17 April 202

Metastatic patterns and prognosis of patients with primary malignant cardiac tumor

BackgroundDistant metastases are independent negative prognostic factors for patients with primary malignant cardiac tumors (PMCT). This study aims to further investigate metastatic patterns and their prognostic effects in patients with PMCT.Materials and methodsThis multicenter retrospective study included 218 patients with PMCT diagnosed between 2010 and 2017 from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Logistic regression was utilized to identify metastatic risk factors. A Chi-square test was performed to assess the metastatic rate. Kaplan–Meier methods and Cox regression analysis were used to analyze the prognostic effects of metastatic patterns.ResultsSarcoma (p = 0.002) and tumor size¿4 cm (p = 0.006) were independent risk factors of distant metastases in patients with PMCT. Single lung metastasis (about 34%) was the most common of all metastatic patterns, and lung metastases occurred more frequently (17.9%) than bone, liver, and brain. Brain metastases had worst overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) among other metastases, like lung, bone, liver, and brain (OS: HR = 3.20, 95% CI: 1.02–10.00, p = 0.046; CSS: HR = 3.53, 95% CI: 1.09–11.47, p = 0.036).ConclusionPatients with PMCT who had sarcoma or a tumor larger than 4 cm had a higher risk of distant metastases. Lung was the most common metastatic site, and brain metastases had worst survival among others, such as lung, bone, liver, and brain. The results of this study provide insight for early detection, diagnosis, and treatment of distant metastases associated with PMCT

The Prevalence of Metabolically Healthy and Unhealthy Obesity according to Different Criteria

Objective: Obesity-related disease risks may vary depending on whether the subject has metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) or metabolically unhealthy obesity (MUO). At least 5 definitions/criteria of obesity and metabolic disorders have been documented in the literature, yielding uncertainties in a reliable international comparison of obesity phenotype prevalence. This report aims to compare differences in MHO and MUO prevalence according to the 5 most frequently used definitions. Methods: A random sample of 4,757 adults aged 35 years and older (male 51.1%) was enrolled. Obesity was defined either according to body mass index or waist circumference, and the definitions of metabolic abnormalities were derived from 5 different criteria. Results: In MHO, the highest prevalence was obtained when using the homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) criteria (13.6%), followed by the Chinese Diabetes Society (11.4%), Adult Treatment Panel III (10.3%), Wildman (5.2%), and Karelis (4.2%) criteria; however, the MUO prevalence had an opposite trend to MHO prevalence. The magnitude of differences in the age-specific prevalence of MHO and MUO varied greatly and ranked in different orders. The proportion of insulin resistance for MHO and MUO individuals differed significantly regardless of which metabolic criterion was used. Conclusion: The prevalence of MHO and MUO in the Chinese population varies according to different definitions of obesity and metabolic disorders

A Neutrosophic Forecasting Model for Time Series Based on First-Order State and Information Entropy of High-Order Fluctuation

In time series forecasting, information presentation directly affects prediction efficiency. Most existing time series forecasting models follow logical rules according to the relationships between neighboring states, without considering the inconsistency of fluctuations for a related period. In this paper, we propose a new perspective to study the problem of prediction, in which inconsistency is quantified and regarded as a key characteristic of prediction rules. First, a time series is converted to a fluctuation time series by comparing each of the current data with corresponding previous data. Then, the upward trend of each of fluctuation data is mapped to the truth-membership of a neutrosophic set, while a falsity-membership is used for the downward trend. Information entropy of high-order fluctuation time series is introduced to describe the inconsistency of historical fluctuations and is mapped to the indeterminacy-membership of the neutrosophic set. Finally, an existing similarity measurement method for the neutrosophic set is introduced to find similar states during the forecasting stage. Then, a weighted arithmetic averaging (WAA) aggregation operator is introduced to obtain the forecasting result according to the corresponding similarity. Compared to existing forecasting models, the neutrosophic forecasting model based on information entropy (NFM-IE) can represent both fluctuation trend and fluctuation consistency information. In order to test its performance, we used the proposed model to forecast some realistic time series, such as the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX), the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHSECI), and the Hang Seng Index (HSI). The experimental results show that the proposed model can stably predict for different datasets. Simultaneously, comparing the prediction error to other approaches proves that the model has outstanding prediction accuracy and universality

A Forecasting Model Based on High-Order Fluctuation Trends and Information Entropy

Most existing high-order prediction models abstract logical rules that are based on historical discrete states without considering historical inconsistency and fluctuation trends. In fact, these two characteristics are important for describing historical fluctuations. This paper proposes a model based on logical rules abstracted from historical dynamic fluctuation trends and the corresponding inconsistencies. In the logical rule training stage, the dynamic trend states of up and down are mapped to the two dimensions of truth-membership and false-membership of neutrosophic sets, respectively. Meanwhile, information entropy is employed to quantify the inconsistency of a period of history, which is mapped to the indeterminercy-membership of the neutrosophic sets. In the forecasting stage, the similarities among the neutrosophic sets are employed to locate the most similar left side of the logical relationship. Therefore, the two characteristics of the fluctuation trends and inconsistency assist with the future forecasting. The proposed model extends existing high-order fuzzy logical relationships (FLRs) to neutrosophic logical relationships (NLRs). When compared with traditional discrete high-order FLRs, the proposed NLRs have higher generality and handle the problem caused by the lack of rules. The proposed method is then implemented to forecast Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index and Heng Seng Index. The experimental conclusions indicate that the model has stable prediction ability for different data sets. Simultaneously, comparing the prediction error with other approaches also proves that the model has outstanding prediction accuracy and universality

State convergence and keyspace reduction of the Mixer stream cipher

This paper presents an analysis of the stream cipher Mixer, a bit-based cipher with structural components similar to the well-known Grain cipher and the LILI family of keystream generators. Mixer uses a 128-bit key and 64-bit IV to initialise a 217-bit internal state. The analysis is focused on the initialisation function of Mixer and shows that there exist multiple key-IV pairs which, after initialisation, produce the same initial state, and consequently will generate the same keystream. Furthermore, if the number of iterations of the state update function performed during initialisation is increased, then the number of distinct initial states that can be obtained decreases. It is also shown that there exist some distinct initial states which produce the same keystream, resulting in a further reduction of the effective key spac